Tớ thực ra không muốn cười vào bản thân cái tỷ giá mà chỉ là cười vào cái sự im lặng khá tế nhị của nhiều đồng chí vốn lớn tiếng phê phán chuyện phá giá, và cười vào cái sự tráo trở, nói kiểu gì cũng được của nhiều đồng chí khác.
Chẳng hạn trước đây cũng các đồng chí này cho rằng phá giá thì sẽ không làm tăng xuất khẩu, mà chỉ tăng lạm phát, tăng nhập khẩu. Nay thì từ Thống đốc đến Vụ trưởng Vụ tiền tệ NHNN, đến những chuyên gia này kia đều rất tự nhiên khi nói phá giá (chính xác là "điều chỉnh" tỷ giá) là để hỗ trợ xuất khẩu, rằng tỷ giá tăng nhưng không làm tăng lạm phát. Hình như ngay cả Bình Thống đốc trước đây nói ngược lại thế thì phải nhi?
Hoặc trước đây thì tất cả đều một giọng giống nhau (như là có đạo diễn) rằng không có lý do gì để phá giá vì "cung cầu ngoại tệ rất dồi dào", vì nào là thặng dư cán cân thanh toán và cán cân tổng thể v.v... Nay thì dường như chẳng vì lý do gì ngoài lý do "hỗ trợ xuất khẩu" mà phá giá, hỏi thế có trêu ngươi không cơ chứ?
Rồi nhiều đồng chí ăn theo nói leo, hoặc trót tin vào lời hứa của Bình Thống đốc nên khẳng định như đúng rồi rằng tỷ giá sẽ ổn định, không tăng quá 1% năm nay. Nay thì đã nhỡ nhàng rồi, biết ăn nói với thiên hạ ra sao, làm sao lấy lại được lời đã nói đây? Cơ khổ!
Thôi tớ không muốn cười nữa, chỉ mong các đồng chí từ bây giờ trở đi ráng mà nhớ lấy cái lần này để lần sau có nói gì ấm ớ thì cũng ấm ớ cho nó vừa vừa, có chừng mực thôi, không sẽ lại có thêm nhiều kẻ cười cho.
Chẳng nhẽ tớ lại hô tớ muôn năm?!.
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Một số nghiên cứu bằng tiếng Anh của tớ
(Một số bài không download được. Bạn đọc có nhu cầu thì bảo tớ nhé)
19. Yang, Chih-Hai, Ramstetter, Eric D., Tsaur, Jen-Ruey, and Phan Minh Ngoc, 2015, "Openness, Ownership, and Regional Economic Growth in Vietnam", Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Vol. 51, Supplement 1, 2015 (Mar).
http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/1540496X.2014.998886#.Ve7he3kVjIU
18. Ramstetter, Eric D. and Phan Minh Ngoc, 2013, 'Productivity, Ownership, and Producer Concentration in Transition: Further Evidence from Vietnamese Manufacturing', Journal of Asian Economics, Vol. 25, Apr 2013,
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1049007812001170.
17. Ramstetter, Eric D. and Phan Minh Ngoc, 2011, 'Productivity, Ownership, and Producer Concentration in Transition: Further Evidence from Vietnamese Manufacturing', ESRI Discussion Paper Series No.278, Economic and Social Research Institute, Cabinet Office, Tokyo, Japan. (http://www.esri.go.jp/en/archive/e_dis/abstract/e_dis278-e.html)
16. Phan, Minh Ngoc and Eric D. Ramstetter, 2009, ‘Foreign Ownership and Exports in Vietnamese Manufacturing’, Singapore Economic Review, Vol. 54, Issue 04.
(http://econpapers.repec.org/article/wsiserxxx/v_3a54_3ay_3a2009_3ai_3a04_3ap_3a569-588.htm)
15. Phan, Minh Ngoc, 2008. ‘The Roles of Capital and Technological Progress in Vietnam’s Economic Growth’, Journal of Economic Studies, Vol. 32, No. 2.
(http://www.emeraldinsight.com/journals.htm?articleid=1724281)
14. Phan, Minh Ngoc, 2008. ‘Sources of Vietnam’s Economic Growth’, Progress in Development Studies, Vol. 8, No. 3.
(http://pdj.sagepub.com/content/8/3.toc)
13. Ramstetter, Eric D. and Phan Minh Ngoc, 2008. 'Productivity, Ownership, and Producer Concentration in Transition: Evidence from Vietnamese Manufacturing’, Working Paper 2008-04, Kitakyushu: International Centre for the Study of East Asian Development.
(http://www.icsead.or.jp/7publication/wp2008a_e.html#04)
12. Ramstetter, Eric D. and Phan Minh Ngoc, 2007. ‘Employee Compensation, Ownership, and Producer Concentration in Vietnam’s Manufacturing Industries’, Working Paper 2007-07, Kitakyushu: International Centre for the Study of East Asian Development.
(www.icsead.or.jp/7publication/wp2007a_e.html)
11. Ramstetter, Eric D. and Phan Minh Ngoc, 2007. ‘Changes in Ownership and Producer Concentration after the Implementation of Vietnam’s Enterprise Law’, Working Paper 2007-06, Kitakyushu: International Centre for the Study of East Asian Development.
(http://www.icsead.or.jp/7publication/wp2007a_e.html#06)
10. Phan, Minh Ngoc and Eric D. Ramstetter, 2006. ‘Economic Growth, Trade, and Multinational Presence in Vietnam's Provinces’, Working Paper 2006-18, Kitakyushu: International Centre for the Study of East Asian Development. Also presented in the 10th Convention of the East Asian Economic Association, Nov. 18-19, 2006, Beijing.
(http://www.icsead.or.jp/7publication/wp2006a_e.html#18)
9. Phan, Minh Ngoc, Nguyen Thi Phuong Anh, Phan Thuy Nga, and Shigeru Uchida, 2005. ‘Effects of Cyclical Movements of Foreign Currencies’ Interest Rates and Exchange Rates on the Vietnamese Currency’s Interest and Exchange Rates’. Asian Business & Management, Vol. 4, No.3.
(http://www.palgrave-journals.com/abm/journal/v4/n3/abs/9200134a.html)
8. Phan, Minh Ngoc and Eric D. Ramstetter, 2004. ‘Foreign Multinationals and Local Firms in Vietnam's Economic Transition’. Asian Economic Journal, Vol.18, No.4.
(http://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/asiaec/v18y2004i4p371-404.html)
7. Phan, Minh Ngoc and Eric D. Ramstetter, 2004. ‘Foreign Ownership Shares and Exports of Multinational Firms in Vietnamese Manufacturing’, Working Paper 2004-32, Kitakyushu: International Centre for the Study of East Asian Development. An earlier version of this paper was presented in the 9th Convention of the East Asian Economic Association, 13-14 November 2004, Hong Kong.
(www.icsead.or.jp/7publication/workingpp/wp2004/2004-32.pdf)
6. Phan, Minh Ngoc, Nguyen Thi Phuong Anh, and Phan Thuy Nga, 2003. ‘Exports and Long-Run Growth in Vietnam, 1976-2001’, ASEAN Economic Bulletin, Vol.20, No.3.
(http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_hb020/is_3_20/ai_n29057943/)
5. Phan, Minh Ngoc and Eric D. Ramstetter, 2003. ‘Comparing Foreign Multinationals and Local Firms in Vietnam’, Working Paper 2003-43, Kitakyushu: International Centre for the Study of East Asian Development.
(http://www.icsead.or.jp/7publication/workingpp/wp2003/2003-43.pdf)
4. Phan, Minh Ngoc and Shigeru Uchida, 2003. ‘Stabilization Policy Issues in Vietnam’s Economic Transition’. Annual Review of Southeast Asian Studies, Research Institute of Southeast Asia, Faculty of Economics, Nagasaki University, Vol. 44 (March).
3. Phan, Minh Ngoc and Eric D. Ramstetter, 2002. ‘Foreign Multinationals, State-Owned Enterprises, and Other Firms in Vietnam’, Working Paper 2002-23, Kitakyushu: International Centre for the Study of East Asian Development. This paper was also presented in the 8th Convention of the East Asian Economic Association, 4-5 November 2002, Kuala Lumpur.
(http://www.icsead.or.jp/7publication/workingpp/wp2003/2003-43.pdf)
2. Phan, Minh Ngoc and Shigeru Uchida, 2002. ‘Capital Controls to Reduce Volatility of Capital Flows; Case Studies in Chile, Malaysia, and Vietnam in 1990s’. Annual Review of Southeast Asian Studies, Research Institute of Southeast Asia, Faculty of Economics, Nagasaki University, Vol. 43 (March).
1. Phan, Minh Ngoc, 2002. ‘Comparisons of Foreign Invested Enterprises and State-Owned Enterprises in Vietnam in the 1990s’. Kyushu Keizai Nenpo (the Annual Report of Economic Science, Kyushu Association of Economic Science), No.40 (December). An earlier version of this paper was presented in the 40th Conference of the Kyushu Keizai Gakkai (Kyushu Association of Economic Science).
19. Yang, Chih-Hai, Ramstetter, Eric D., Tsaur, Jen-Ruey, and Phan Minh Ngoc, 2015, "Openness, Ownership, and Regional Economic Growth in Vietnam", Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Vol. 51, Supplement 1, 2015 (Mar).
http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/1540496X.2014.998886#.Ve7he3kVjIU
18. Ramstetter, Eric D. and Phan Minh Ngoc, 2013, 'Productivity, Ownership, and Producer Concentration in Transition: Further Evidence from Vietnamese Manufacturing', Journal of Asian Economics, Vol. 25, Apr 2013,
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1049007812001170.
17. Ramstetter, Eric D. and Phan Minh Ngoc, 2011, 'Productivity, Ownership, and Producer Concentration in Transition: Further Evidence from Vietnamese Manufacturing', ESRI Discussion Paper Series No.278, Economic and Social Research Institute, Cabinet Office, Tokyo, Japan. (http://www.esri.go.jp/en/archive/e_dis/abstract/e_dis278-e.html)
16. Phan, Minh Ngoc and Eric D. Ramstetter, 2009, ‘Foreign Ownership and Exports in Vietnamese Manufacturing’, Singapore Economic Review, Vol. 54, Issue 04.
(http://econpapers.repec.org/article/wsiserxxx/v_3a54_3ay_3a2009_3ai_3a04_3ap_3a569-588.htm)
15. Phan, Minh Ngoc, 2008. ‘The Roles of Capital and Technological Progress in Vietnam’s Economic Growth’, Journal of Economic Studies, Vol. 32, No. 2.
(http://www.emeraldinsight.com/journals.htm?articleid=1724281)
14. Phan, Minh Ngoc, 2008. ‘Sources of Vietnam’s Economic Growth’, Progress in Development Studies, Vol. 8, No. 3.
(http://pdj.sagepub.com/content/8/3.toc)
13. Ramstetter, Eric D. and Phan Minh Ngoc, 2008. 'Productivity, Ownership, and Producer Concentration in Transition: Evidence from Vietnamese Manufacturing’, Working Paper 2008-04, Kitakyushu: International Centre for the Study of East Asian Development.
(http://www.icsead.or.jp/7publication/wp2008a_e.html#04)
12. Ramstetter, Eric D. and Phan Minh Ngoc, 2007. ‘Employee Compensation, Ownership, and Producer Concentration in Vietnam’s Manufacturing Industries’, Working Paper 2007-07, Kitakyushu: International Centre for the Study of East Asian Development.
(www.icsead.or.jp/7publication/wp2007a_e.html)
11. Ramstetter, Eric D. and Phan Minh Ngoc, 2007. ‘Changes in Ownership and Producer Concentration after the Implementation of Vietnam’s Enterprise Law’, Working Paper 2007-06, Kitakyushu: International Centre for the Study of East Asian Development.
(http://www.icsead.or.jp/7publication/wp2007a_e.html#06)
10. Phan, Minh Ngoc and Eric D. Ramstetter, 2006. ‘Economic Growth, Trade, and Multinational Presence in Vietnam's Provinces’, Working Paper 2006-18, Kitakyushu: International Centre for the Study of East Asian Development. Also presented in the 10th Convention of the East Asian Economic Association, Nov. 18-19, 2006, Beijing.
(http://www.icsead.or.jp/7publication/wp2006a_e.html#18)
9. Phan, Minh Ngoc, Nguyen Thi Phuong Anh, Phan Thuy Nga, and Shigeru Uchida, 2005. ‘Effects of Cyclical Movements of Foreign Currencies’ Interest Rates and Exchange Rates on the Vietnamese Currency’s Interest and Exchange Rates’. Asian Business & Management, Vol. 4, No.3.
(http://www.palgrave-journals.com/abm/journal/v4/n3/abs/9200134a.html)
8. Phan, Minh Ngoc and Eric D. Ramstetter, 2004. ‘Foreign Multinationals and Local Firms in Vietnam's Economic Transition’. Asian Economic Journal, Vol.18, No.4.
(http://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/asiaec/v18y2004i4p371-404.html)
7. Phan, Minh Ngoc and Eric D. Ramstetter, 2004. ‘Foreign Ownership Shares and Exports of Multinational Firms in Vietnamese Manufacturing’, Working Paper 2004-32, Kitakyushu: International Centre for the Study of East Asian Development. An earlier version of this paper was presented in the 9th Convention of the East Asian Economic Association, 13-14 November 2004, Hong Kong.
(www.icsead.or.jp/7publication/workingpp/wp2004/2004-32.pdf)
6. Phan, Minh Ngoc, Nguyen Thi Phuong Anh, and Phan Thuy Nga, 2003. ‘Exports and Long-Run Growth in Vietnam, 1976-2001’, ASEAN Economic Bulletin, Vol.20, No.3.
(http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_hb020/is_3_20/ai_n29057943/)
5. Phan, Minh Ngoc and Eric D. Ramstetter, 2003. ‘Comparing Foreign Multinationals and Local Firms in Vietnam’, Working Paper 2003-43, Kitakyushu: International Centre for the Study of East Asian Development.
(http://www.icsead.or.jp/7publication/workingpp/wp2003/2003-43.pdf)
4. Phan, Minh Ngoc and Shigeru Uchida, 2003. ‘Stabilization Policy Issues in Vietnam’s Economic Transition’. Annual Review of Southeast Asian Studies, Research Institute of Southeast Asia, Faculty of Economics, Nagasaki University, Vol. 44 (March).
3. Phan, Minh Ngoc and Eric D. Ramstetter, 2002. ‘Foreign Multinationals, State-Owned Enterprises, and Other Firms in Vietnam’, Working Paper 2002-23, Kitakyushu: International Centre for the Study of East Asian Development. This paper was also presented in the 8th Convention of the East Asian Economic Association, 4-5 November 2002, Kuala Lumpur.
(http://www.icsead.or.jp/7publication/workingpp/wp2003/2003-43.pdf)
2. Phan, Minh Ngoc and Shigeru Uchida, 2002. ‘Capital Controls to Reduce Volatility of Capital Flows; Case Studies in Chile, Malaysia, and Vietnam in 1990s’. Annual Review of Southeast Asian Studies, Research Institute of Southeast Asia, Faculty of Economics, Nagasaki University, Vol. 43 (March).
1. Phan, Minh Ngoc, 2002. ‘Comparisons of Foreign Invested Enterprises and State-Owned Enterprises in Vietnam in the 1990s’. Kyushu Keizai Nenpo (the Annual Report of Economic Science, Kyushu Association of Economic Science), No.40 (December). An earlier version of this paper was presented in the 40th Conference of the Kyushu Keizai Gakkai (Kyushu Association of Economic Science).
Cái này thì bác cùng mấy bác có học hành, nghiên cứu nghiêm túc đã từng phát biểu nhiều lần rồi là VND phải xuống giá vì thực tế nó đã bị định giá cao quá lâu.
ReplyDeleteMối quan hệ giữa lạm phát và tỉ giá như bác nói rất hợp lý, VN hiện tại không phải lạm phát do tỉ giá gây ra mà là do nhiều nguyên nhân khác, trong đó có yết tố cung tiền quá mức, lãi suất tăng cao,..
Một lần nữa bác lại được sướng rồi, vì bác bói toán chính xác đấy!
Nói là sướng thế thôi chứ sướng với mấy đồng chí mà tớ phang thì làm sao mà sướng được cơ chứ? Ngu ngu đệ nhất! Một cách tuyệt đối, có hệ thống, hết thuốc!
DeleteEm thấy anh cũng tin vào lời Thống đốc đấy chứ, vì có tin mới uất ức. Hehe. Nhưng thôi, nhân dịp lên lão, anh cứ tự sướng cái đã, chả tội gì!
ReplyDeleteChúc mừng sinh nhật anh!
Hehe, đồng chí em nhầm to rồi. Tớ có lên lão cũng không đến nỗi lú lẫn rằng hôm nay là sinh nhật tớ (trừ khi đồng chí em làm lại khai sinh cho tớ để làm Bộ trưởng Bộ Công an nhé!)
DeleteAnh Ngọc nói đúng, chửi đúng. Nhưng entry này có vẻ hơi đàn bà ;)
DeleteỪ, kể thì đồng chí nói cũng không sai. Tớ ngồi đọc lại cũng hơi có cảm giác vậy. Chẳng qua cũng vì tớ uất với cái lũ ăn hại này quá, làm hại cho dân mà nói như nước đổ đầu vịt. Đồng chí cũng phải thông cảm cho tớ nhé, hehe.
DeleteCác vị lãnh đạn nói láo, các vị chiên gia nói leo, phán lần nào sai lần đó. Ít bữa lại lên phán tiếp. Thế có điên ko cơ chứ? HDV
ReplyDelete